Monday, April 13, 2015

FanGraphs on Sample Sizes

For those of you not so analytically inclined, I humbly submit the following FanGraphs article from Dave Cameron that discusses what we mean we say "small sample size" and how and when we can rely on statistics in a new season. It's a great starting point in understanding how to approach baseball statistics from an analytic standpoint. Even if you are well versed in this stuff, it's a great refresher.

It's also a great reminder for Nationals fans that while we can't ignore the beginning of the season, we need to discount how much reliance we place on it. The four losses still count in the records and the performances of certain players are the most recent and, therefore, most indicative of true talent level. That being said, even Adrian Gonzalez's earth shattering first week doesn't change our expectations from him over the full 2015 season by all that much. In other words, despair over the rough start for the Nationals, but only a little bit.

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